Teams Weekly Report

Below you’ll find figures showing key advanced metrics I’m tracking for all 32 NFL teams.

Team Level Performance

Offensive vs. Defensive EPA

Expected Points Added: The change in Expected Points (EP) from one play to the next. EPA yields a single measure of the value of every play. Expected Points was created by the nflfastR team using a statistical model trained on historical data, and takes into account features like down, distance, time remaining, whether the game is being played indoors, etc. It helps answer the question “How good of a position is my team in to score as of now?” Higher EPA on offense is better, while a lower EPA on defense is more desirable.

EPA helps provide better context around what plays are more valuable. For example, a five-yard completion on third-and-4 is better than an eight-yard completion on third-and-9, despite the fact that the latter resulted in more yards.

Performance vs Expectations

The below shows current win totals – expressed in win percentage – compared to pre-season win total expectations according to Vegas bookmakers. Bet365 data was pulled one week before the season began for this analysis.

Pythagorean Wins

The below shows each team’s actual win percentage vs their pythagoroean win percentage. Pythagorean winning percentage is important to look at because it’s a better predictor of future success than actual wins. According to Sumer Sports, pythagorean winning percentage has an R^2 of 0.14 to next year’s winning percentage while actual winning percentage is only 0.11.

Point Differential

The below shows cumulative point differential for each team this season.

Explosive Plays

Some teams are better than others at getting chunk plays. We’re defining explosive plays as those gaining 15 yards or more on rushes and 20 yards+ on passes. We’re highlighting the 49ers this season since they have been among the most exciting teams to watch.

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Strength of Schedule

Coming soon…

Fourth Downs

Teams are going for it on 4th Down more often nowadays. The below table shows each team’s go-for-it rates on fourth-and-short over the last decade-plus. Year-to-date teams have gone for it in fourth-and-short situations NA percent of the time in 2023. We will track how each team fares on its fourth-down decision making throughout the season.

	team	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
4th Down Decison Making
Percentages shown are how often a team went for it when it on 4th & short, defined as less than 3 yards to go, and when win probability was between 20% and 80% (game-neutral situations). 2023 data is Thru Week 18.
	DAL	11.1	57.1	19.0	21.1	40.0	47.1	50.0	76.9	64.7	71.4	90.9
	PHI	55.6	30.0	50.0	77.8	64.7	60.0	62.5	63.6	88.9	72.2	87.5
	GB	37.5	28.6	38.1	43.8	37.5	22.2	40.0	81.8	69.2	78.6	83.3
	DET	26.3	28.6	16.7	35.0	7.1	21.1	28.6	50.0	72.7	73.9	81.2
	CLE	33.3	28.6	27.3	28.6	55.6	50.0	66.7	62.5	58.3	70.6	72.7
	ARI	11.1	20.0	33.3	16.7	10.5	22.2	53.3	76.5	71.4	68.4	70.0
	TEN	36.4	7.1	10.5	0.0	25.0	33.3	40.0	50.0	46.2	42.9	69.2
	JAX	44.4	25.0	0.0	30.0	27.3	30.8	20.0	40.0	69.2	80.0	62.5
	BUF	22.7	15.4	20.0	33.3	16.7	62.5	60.0	53.8	64.3	80.0	60.0
	CHI	40.0	31.2	17.4	40.0	0.0	38.5	23.1	37.5	61.1	33.3	58.3
	WAS	13.3	23.1	16.7	25.0	28.6	42.9	12.5	46.2	44.4	61.5	56.2
	CAR	46.7	27.8	35.7	22.2	25.0	41.7	70.0	72.7	63.6	33.3	55.6
	IND	21.4	37.5	11.1	38.5	7.7	43.8	63.2	68.4	92.3	44.4	51.9
	DEN	37.5	0.0	26.1	15.8	33.3	29.4	23.1	28.6	58.8	36.0	50.0
	LA	17.6	6.2	12.5	26.3	18.2	25.0	14.3	31.8	68.8	58.3	50.0
	TB	25.0	50.0	14.3	30.0	18.2	33.3	46.2	36.4	36.4	43.3	50.0
	LV	7.1	7.1	40.0	12.5	38.9	38.5	35.7	63.2	64.3	55.6	47.1
	PIT	33.3	22.2	33.3	31.2	25.0	38.5	33.3	42.9	23.5	35.3	47.1
	KC	18.8	20.0	25.0	36.4	16.7	50.0	50.0	72.7	71.4	33.3	45.5
	LAC	23.8	25.0	0.0	38.5	13.3	20.0	27.3	44.4	72.2	50.0	45.5
	MIA	22.2	23.1	23.1	14.3	33.3	25.0	50.0	40.0	41.7	44.4	45.5
	MIN	26.3	26.7	20.0	26.7	14.3	50.0	33.3	57.1	38.5	45.5	44.4
	SEA	18.2	16.7	25.0	40.0	25.0	43.8	11.1	27.3	18.2	53.8	43.8
	HOU	26.7	33.3	50.0	33.3	25.0	31.2	66.7	44.4	45.5	31.2	42.9
	NO	28.6	33.3	42.9	53.8	50.0	68.8	33.3	41.2	63.6	14.3	42.9
	NYJ	0.0	16.7	20.0	17.6	17.6	30.8	70.0	50.0	50.0	23.8	37.5
	ATL	26.7	10.0	38.5	58.3	22.2	33.3	71.4	71.4	62.5	53.8	36.8
	NYG	21.4	30.0	14.3	27.8	23.5	54.5	55.6	76.9	43.8	40.0	36.4
	SF	25.0	35.7	44.4	50.0	33.3	12.5	43.8	47.1	58.8	30.8	33.3
	NE	23.5	18.8	33.3	9.1	36.4	47.1	35.7	40.0	33.3	21.4	31.2
	CIN	40.0	18.8	40.0	23.1	16.7	45.5	46.2	37.5	41.2	30.8	30.8
	BAL	33.3	52.6	40.9	41.2	42.9	60.0	90.0	50.0	56.2	52.2	28.6
DATA: nflfastR TABLE: @steodosescu