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Below you’ll find figures showing key advanced metrics I’m tracking for individual players throughout the season.

Quarterback Performance

Quarterback Summary

The below shows a summary of QB performances so far this season.

Quarterback Passing Summary
Minimum 200 pass yards, and ordered by passing TDs thrown. Thru Week 18.
Player Team Comps Att Pass Yds Pass TDs INTs Comp % Pass EPA
AFC - East
Josh Allen BUF 224 332 2797 21 5 67.5% 111.9
Tua Tagovailoa MIA 245 334 2526 17 1 73.4% 104.2
Aaron Rodgers NYJ 260 412 2922 21 7 63.1% 46.2
Joe Milton III NE 22 29 241 1 0 75.9% 11.8
Drake Maye NE 191 276 1930 13 9 69.2% −0.3
Tyler Huntley MIA 47 67 452 2 2 70.1% −1.6
AFC - North
Lamar Jackson BAL 265 404 3489 34 4 65.6% 136.8
Joe Burrow CIN 424 598 4573 41 9 70.9% 123.0
Justin Fields PIT 47 66 557 2 1 71.2% 11.8
Russell Wilson PIT 154 229 1853 9 4 67.2% 3.5
Jameis Winston CLE 159 259 1892 12 9 61.4% −13.4
AFC - South
C.J. Stroud HOU 254 387 2892 14 10 65.6% 29.4
Trevor Lawrence JAX 86 131 1133 6 3 65.6% 25.5
Mac Jones JAX 119 180 1221 6 5 66.1% 22.4
Joe Flacco IND 108 157 1225 8 5 68.8% 2.4
Mason Rudolph TEN 111 171 1182 8 8 64.9% 1.2
Anthony Richardson IND 46 83 688 4 4 55.4% −1.4
Will Levis TEN 79 126 1045 7 4 62.7% −14.2
AFC - West
Patrick Mahomes KC 316 458 3268 19 5 69.0% 86.4
Justin Herbert LAC 222 339 2786 15 1 65.5% 80.7
Bo Nix DEN 302 441 3283 25 7 68.5% 80.3
Aidan O'Connell LV 118 182 1280 7 2 64.8% 12.8
Desmond Ridder LV 23 39 208 1 2 59.0% −7.5
Gardner Minshew LV 152 214 1468 8 5 71.0% −10.7
NFC - East
Jayden Daniels WAS 284 410 3149 24 8 69.3% 72.8
Jalen Hurts PHI 156 221 2032 11 4 70.6% 50.2
Dak Prescott DAL 131 197 1488 9 6 66.5% 22.3
Cooper Rush DAL 100 151 1107 7 1 66.2% 15.6
Marcus Mariota WAS 18 23 205 2 0 78.3% 11.8
Tanner McKee PHI 27 41 269 2 0 65.9% 7.5
Daniel Jones NYG 122 187 1243 4 3 65.2% 6.4
Trey Lance DAL 20 34 244 0 0 58.8% −2.6
Drew Lock NYG 60 111 746 5 3 54.1% −6.0
NFC - North
Jared Goff DET 342 479 4200 31 11 71.4% 159.2
Sam Darnold MIN 312 445 3793 31 11 70.1% 82.2
Jordan Love GB 199 310 2594 21 10 64.2% 49.3
Caleb Williams CHI 199 308 2271 15 3 64.6% 36.4
Malik Willis GB 13 19 202 1 0 68.4% 3.5
NFC - South
Baker Mayfield TB 310 434 3656 33 14 71.4% 122.4
Kirk Cousins ATL 258 383 3068 16 12 67.4% 47.9
Derek Carr NO 114 166 1454 8 3 68.7% 41.0
Bryce Young CAR 130 208 1458 10 4 62.5% 15.3
Andy Dalton CAR 77 115 760 7 3 67.0% 11.5
Michael Penix Jr. ATL 58 100 737 3 3 58.0% 11.4
Spencer Rattler NO 68 118 701 3 4 57.6% −30.6
NFC - West
Brock Purdy SF 254 378 3469 19 10 67.2% 95.2
Kyler Murray ARI 289 412 3053 17 9 70.1% 70.8
Matthew Stafford LA 265 392 2966 17 6 67.6% 44.9
Geno Smith SEA 357 511 3840 20 13 69.9% 38.8
Jimmy Garoppolo LA 27 41 334 2 1 65.9% 3.0
Joshua Dobbs SF 29 43 326 2 2 67.4% 2.8
Table: @steodosescu | Data: nflfastR

EPA per Dropback by Team

The below isolates Expected Points Added for pass plays only to get a sense of how each team’s quarterback is performing on a per-dropback basis.

EPA vs CPOE per dropback by team

The below is another way to look at quarterback efficiency using EPA and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) as measures. CPOE is simply the difference between a quarterback’s expected completion percentage and actual completion percentage. Expected completion percentage is a stat measuring the likelihood of a given pass being completed which factors in features like depth of target (air yards). It’s a better measure of accuracy than traditional completion percentage because it takes into account the location of where passes are being thrown.

Here we focus on quarterback play only as the QB position is the most valuable position on the field. As the quarterback goes, the team goes.

Difference in Expected and Actual Yards

The below shows what quarterbacks have completed a either higher percentage or lower percentage of their passes than expected, according to the nflfastR model.

Receivers Performance

Receivers average Depth of Target (aDOT) vs. Catch Rate

The below shows receiver catch rate against their average depth of target (air yards).

Rushing Performance

The below shows a rusher’s success rate vs his total EPA gained on runs this season.

Copyright © 2021 Stephan Teodosescu