Predictions

Simulations

Below you’ll find predictions for the current NFL season after simulating the remaining schedule 10,000x. The model starts from a regressed version of last season’s ending Elo ratings for all 32 teams, updates them with every game played so far this season, and then adjusts independently within each simulation as each week is simulated.

2026 NFL Simulations

Team wins simulated based off Elo model using {nflseedR}
Simulation by @steodosescu via 10,000 {nflseedR} simulated games | Inspired by Tom Mock

Current Week Odds

Below you’ll find current week game odds based on my simulations of the remainder of the NFL season.

NFL Current Week Odds
2026 Regular Season: Week 7
Game Type Week Away || Home 1 Predicted Spread2
REG 7 CIN 46.3%53.7% BAL 1.2
REG 7 CLE 60.0%40.0% TEN −3.5
REG 7 DAL 42.4%57.6% PHI 2.8
REG 7 DEN 71.8%28.1% ARI −7.6
REG 7 GB 42.4%57.6% DET 2.6
REG 7 IND 25.6%74.4% MIN 8.8
REG 7 KC 44.3%55.7% SEA 1.9
REG 7 LA 63.7%36.3% LV −4.7
REG 7 MIA 47.3%52.7% NYJ 0.9
REG 7 NE 0.0%100.0% CHI 6.0
REG 7 NYG 36.4%63.6% HOU 4.7
REG 7 PIT 62.7%37.3% NO −4.3
REG 7 SF 71.6%28.4% ATL −7.6
REG 7 TB 41.5%58.5% CAR 2.7
1 Win probabilities based on 10,000 simulations of remaining games using Between the Pipes' team power ratings.
2 Spread from the perspective of the home team.
DATA: nflfastR

Super Bowl Vegas Odds

Copyright © 2021 Stephan Teodosescu