Each team's chance of finishing in each group position and of advancing to the knockout stage (top two of every group plus the eight best third-placed teams qualify).
Simulated probability of each team reaching each stage of the knockout bracket, along with composite ratings and groups. Click any column header to sort.
Model win / draw / loss probability for every group-stage match.
Between the Pipes estimates each team's strength using a composite of several publicly available ratings systems, turns that into match probabilities, and then simulates the entire tournament tens of thousands of times to see how often teams reach each stage.
1 · Composite team ratings
Every team is given a single strength rating built from publicly available rating systems. Each source is normalized to a common scale (mean 1500, standard deviation 150) so that systems expressed in different units can be compared fairly, then blended together with configurable weights. The composite currently combines three sources: the KU Leuven DTAI Sports Analytics Lab model and Nate Silver's PELE ratings (Silver Bulletin), each weighted twice as heavily as World Football Elo (eloratings.net) — a 40 / 40 / 20 split.
2 · From ratings to match probabilities
For any given matchup, the gap between the two teams' composite ratings is converted into an expected goal supremacy — how many goals, on average, the stronger side is expected to win by. Each team's goals are then drawn from a Poisson distribution around its expected total. This produces a full scoreline rather than just a win or a loss, which matters because group-stage tiebreakers depend on goal difference and goals scored.
The model is calibrated so that a typical match produces realistic numbers: around 2.7 goals per game and a draw roughly a fifth of the time. Host nations (USA, Mexico, Canada) receive a small home-field bump.
3 · Knockout matches
Knockout games are simulated the same way, but with tiebreakers built in. When regulation ends level, the winner is decided by a "softened" win-expectancy: the stronger team is still favored, but pulled toward a coin flip to reflect the added randomness of extra time and penalties.
4 · Monte-Carlo simulation
The full 48-team tournament is then simulated 50,000 times. Each run plays all twelve groups (applying FIFA's points → goal difference → goals-scored tiebreakers), determines the top two from every group plus the eight best third-placed teams, and resolves the official bracket from the Round of 32 through to the Final. The probabilities shown throughout the dashboard — a team's chance of reaching a given round, or of lifting the trophy — are simply how often that outcome occurred across all of those simulated tournaments.