Eastern Conference table. Sortable on any column — click a header. xGD is season expected-goal differential (American Soccer Analysis); the top nine seeds qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs.
Western Conference table. Sortable on any column — click a header. The top nine seeds qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs (seeds 8 & 9 meet in the Wild Card round).
Model win / draw / loss probability and projected xG for upcoming fixtures over the next two weeks, from the same xG model that powers the simulations, plus every result of the season with post-match xG.
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Results
Rest-of-season forecast. Each team's strength comes from its expected goals; we play out every remaining fixture tens of thousands of times and tally how often each club makes the MLS Cup Playoffs, wins its conference, and lifts the Supporters' Shield. Sortable — click a header.
A live look at the MLS regular-season table, enriched with expected goals so you can see which teams are outrunning — or flattering — their underlying performance.
The table
Standings, records, and goals are pulled live from ESPN. Points are the MLS standard (3 for a win, 1 for a draw); ordering follows MLS tiebreakers — points, then total wins, goal differential, and goals for. PPG is points per game, useful early in the year when teams have played an uneven number of matches.
Expected goals (xG & xGD)
xGF and xGA are the quality-weighted goals a team "should" have scored and conceded given the chances created and allowed, from American Soccer Analysis. xGD is the difference. A team well above the field in xGD is creating and preventing chances at an elite rate; the gap between a team's real goal differential and its xGD is a rough measure of finishing (and goalkeeping) luck that tends to regress.
Playoffs & the Shield
The top nine teams in each conference qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs; the 8th and 9th seeds meet in a single Wild Card game. The Supporters' Shield is awarded to the club with the best overall regular-season record.
The forecast
The Simulations tab projects the rest of the season. Each team's attacking and defensive strength is estimated from its expected goals — regressed toward the league average so early-season noise and lucky finishing don't dominate — and turned into an expected scoreline for every remaining fixture, with a home-field edge. Those fixtures are then played out with random Poisson goals tens of thousands of times. The probabilities shown — making the playoffs, winning a conference, or the Shield — are simply how often each happened across all of those simulated seasons, starting from the table as it stands today.